Oral Presentation Australian Freshwater Sciences Society Conference 2022

Realised thermal niches of odonata projected to contract in response to climate change. (#16)

Alana L Cormican 1 2 , Michael E Shackleton 2 , Aleicia Holland 2
  1. Centre for Applied Water Science , University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia
  2. Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, VIC, Australia

Realised niches represent the culmination of the many effects environmental and ecological influences have upon species. Consequently, realised niches will vary under different climate change scenarios. Following increased temperatures, realised thermal niches may expand or contract within the limit of an organism’s fundamental thermal niche, changing the area a species can live in. This study aimed to understand current distributions of Victorian odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) and determine each species’ realised thermal niche. Realised thermal niches based upon air temperatures were then used to map the proportion of streams within Victoria currently available, and the proportion of streams remaining within species realised thermal niche under moderate and high emission scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Between the 2000’s to 2090, all 34 species showed a significant decreasing trend in the proportion of streams occurring within their realised thermal niche. This decrease was greater under higher emission scenarios than moderate scenarios. Under high emission scenarios by 2090, 10% or fewer Victorian streams will remain within 31 of the 34 species projected realised thermal niches, with 8 species projected to only have 2% of streams or less available. This study highlights the significant threat projected temperature increases may pose to odonates, which could lead to considerable species losses, with little room for refuge.