Oral Presentation Australian Freshwater Sciences Society Conference 2022

Suitability of Flow-Ecology Models to Support E-Flows Decision Making (#9)

Meghan L Mussehl 1 , Avril Horne 1 , Angus Webb 1
  1. University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC

The world’s freshwater systems are at risk due to increasing consumptive and industrial demands, continued abstraction and regulation, and decreasing water quality. These issues are compounded by the threat of anthropogenic climate change and freshwater ecosystems face further degradation if action is not taken. Environmental watering programs explicitly target aquatic ecosystems and species for conservation, and managers typically outline an entire suite of ecological objectives within these programs. A wide range of flow-ecology modelling approaches have developed in the last twenty years to support environmental flow (e-flow) assessments, however it is unclear how often these models are used in e-flows decision making and what models are most appropriate for this purpose. In our project, we conducted a literature review of flow-ecology models to develop a general characterization of the modelling approaches available within research. Modelling approaches fall broadly into statistical methods (such as functional linear and Bayesian approaches) and deterministic methods (such as state-and-transition and population dynamics approaches). We then conducted an online survey of 40 e-flows practitioners in Australia and abroad to ascertain their familiarity and experience with the range of modelling approaches. Questions within the survey also targeted the perceived benefits of using flow-ecology models as well as the current barriers to their use. We used  descriptive statistical methods and qualitative thematic analysis to identify the criteria most likely to influence model selection within a decision-making process. We make recommendations regarding model suitability for e-flows assessments and identify potential future pathways for e-flows researchers hoping to develop models geared towards supporting e-flows assessments.