Rivers naturally experience low flows, but river regulation and climate change are altering the severity, frequency, and extent to which low flows occur. In this context, an important knowledge gap is which riverine biota might persist under changing low flow regimes; however, this predictive context remains elusive. Here, we present a conceptual framework of how the resilience of riverine biota to low flows might be predicted by: (i) the series of distinct hydrological and ecological stages that riverine systems progress through over the course of low flow events; (ii) the spatial extent of different low flow stages across river networks, relative to the habitat associations of different taxa; and (iii) the antecedent frequency of different low flow stages across a river system, relative to an organism’s life history characteristics. Under this framework, we explain how changes to the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of low flows might therefore be used to predict the resilience of different riverine biota to altered low flow regimes. We also discuss the potential of extending the framework to predicting the resilience of process and community dynamics.