Global warming is the ultimate disturbance to species and ecosystems because it changes fundamental environmental conditions (e.g. temperature) and the frequency and intensity of extreme events; conservation reserves may not offer protection from these disturbances. New and reformulated ecological concepts, founded in the discipline of disturbance ecology, have been developed to support and predict adaptation by species and ecosystems to the changing climate. They include a focus on species traits and refuges from disturbance and include some controversial ideas such as the use of anthropogenic waterbodies in conservation. Looking at what we know about the effects of wildfire, drought and drying climates on freshwater invertebrate fauna in southern Australia, I evaluate these concepts and the methods that support them. Although it is increasingly urgent that we act to protect freshwater species from extirpation and extinction, we face significant knowledge barriers at both small and large spatiotemporal scales. Research results demonstrate how lack of knowledge (especially about species’ life history traits) reduces our ability to make successful predictions, but even where we have good knowledge, change processes in ecosystems present real challenges for prediction. For example, studies analysing species traits often assume that if a species possesses a particular trait (e.g. desiccation-resistant eggs) then that trait will always be expressed when the species is confronted with that disturbance (e.g. drying). However, recent studies show that traits may be more or less flexibly expressed and may be contingent on local-scale conditions. Progress requires awareness of these assumptions and the use of laboratory and field experiments to understand how traits function during disturbance and recovery.